research

JOB MARKET PAPER

Climate Trade Costs: Extreme Weather, Transportation, and Supply Chains

Abstract: Transportation infrastructure is vulnerable to extreme weather events. Vulnerability is prominent at maritime ports, where tropical cyclones frequently halt operations and force firms to adapt to transportation disruptions. I quantify these responses by linking high-frequency maritime shipment data to tropical cyclone tracks. Exposure to tropical cyclones temporarily disrupts port activities (\(\approx\)1–2 weeks), prompting firms to adjust route choices along transportation networks (rerouting), even after ports resume operations (\(\approx\)2–6 months). To evaluate the general equilibrium implications of these weather disruptions, I develop a quantitative model of spatial production networks with endogenous routing. Structural estimation reveals that maritime transportation costs decrease with port capacity (scale), but increase with port traffic (congestion) and cyclone risk. Investigating future climate hazards to the transportation network, I find that rerouting is a key adaptation mechanism that prevents global welfare losses. To translate evidence into policy, I derive model-based sufficient statistics for evaluating and targeting future port investments in light of climate change. Allocation rules that ignore weather risk and firms’ adaptive responses systematically misallocate investment.

[latest version] | Awards: Best Paper at the 23rd GEP Annual Postgraduate Conference 2025, Young Economist Best Presentation at the Bologna PhD Workshop 2024

WORK IN PROGRESS

The Network Effects of Carbon Pricing (with E. Campiglio and S. Trsek)

Abstract: We develop a macroeconomic model to study how carbon pricing initiatives could affect the global economy via international production networks. Using sector- and country-specific data, we estimate the impact of three policies: (i) a global uniform tax; (ii) an EU-only tax; and (iii) an EU-only tax combined with a carbon border adjustment mechanism. Our results show that the distribution of tax-induced socioeconomic losses across sectors and countries critically depends on their relative position within global value chains. Negative impacts triggered by demand shocks in downstream sectors (and propagating upstream) appear to be stronger than that of direct taxation. We also find carbon pricing policies to reconfigure the structure of the international production network, with some countries/sectors becoming more marginal and others more central. Marginalisation on the intermediate input market is salient for countries imposing unilateral carbon policies.

[slides | paper] new version coming soon!

Global Production Networks and Water Depletion (with B. Conte)

Supply Chain Composition and Carbon Pricing: Evidence from the EU ETS (with P. Coster and L. Esala)

POLICY WORK

Adapting to Climate Change Across Space: Policy Recommendations for Europe. (2025) EconPol Forum, 26 (2), 29-32 (with B. Conte)
[published version]

Fostering Cross-border Twin Cities in the Greater Mekong Subregion. (2022) Journal of Mekong Societies, 18(1), 125–153 (with M. Abe)
[published version]