research

IN PROGRESS

Climate Trade Costs (JMP)
Abstract: Trade infrastructure, necessary for the smooth and reliable operation of international trade routes, are highly exposed to the increased in frequency and intensity of climate change-related natural disasters. Maritime trade is particularly exposed to such climate disasters, as cyclons, floods, or droughts represent direct threats to the operation of ports. Operational delays in shipping goods abroad can translate into an increase in the cost of trading, thereby hampering the comparative advantage of firms using the infrastructure. A first key purpose of this project is to understand the responses of firms being affected by climate-fueled increases in trade costs. Using high-frequency custom data on firm-to-firm shipments from Mexican exporters, I investigate empirically how climate disasters (floods and cyclons) affect firm-level trading relationships. Using a theoretical model of international firm-to-firm trade, with climate-affected trade costs, an additional objective is to quantify the general equilibrium effects of global value chains recomposition induced by climate damages affecting trade routes.
[coming soon]

The Network Effects of Carbon Pricing (with E. Campiglio and S. Trsek)
Abstract: We develop a macroeconomic model to study how carbon pricing initiatives could affect the global economy via international production networks. Using sector- and country-specific data, we estimate the impact of three policies: (i) a global uniform tax; (ii) an EU-only tax; and (iii) an EU-only tax combined with a carbon border adjustment mechanism. Our results show that the distribution of tax-induced socioeconomic losses across sectors and countries critically depends on their relative position within global value chains. Negative impacts triggered by demand shocks in downstream sectors (and propagating upstream) appear to be stronger than that of direct taxation. We also find carbon pricing policies to reconfigure the structure of the international production network, with some countries/sectors becoming more marginal and others more central. Marginalisation on the intermediate input market is salient for countries imposing unilateral carbon policies.
[slides | latest version]

POLICY WORK

Fostering Cross-border Twin Cities in the Greater Mekong Subregion. (2022) Journal of Mekong Societies, 18(1), 125–153 (with M. Abe)
[published version]